The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has published a study he commissioned into the impact of Brexit. The study by Cambridge Econometrics attempts to predict the effects of various models of Brexit, including a transition period, ongoing Single Market membership, ongoing Customs Union membership, and a "no-deal" Brexit defaulting to WTO rules. The study focuses on London but also considers the effects on the wider UK. A variety of sectors are assessed, including financial services, technology, creative industries, food and drink, construction and hospitality, as well as the effects on investment, trade and employment. The hardest versions of Brexit are assessed as threatening a loss to the UK economy of £54 billion by 2030, with the amount lost only increasing over time.
The publication follows the controversial acknowledgment by David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, that the UK Government has not carried out any assessments into the impact of Brexit, and his fight to keep confidential the results of the research that government departments have done. The European Parliament in contrast has commissioned and published dozens of impact assessment or studies on Brexit, which are available online here.
Fieldfisher's Regulatory Group has carried out a further impact analysis on the likely administrative and financial effects of Brexit on UK membership of around 21 EU agencies, as detailed in our press release here.
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